Boom, Bust, or Flat – It Depends

While various real estate pundits debate the appreciation levels that the California housing market may face next year, nationwide the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago, says the National Association of Realtors, as reported by AP Economics Writer, Martin Crutsinger.

So, nationwide there’s depreciation, but in California it may be flat to a 10% increase? 

If true, this is another example of how real estate is a very local phenomenon.  And although California consists of many “local” real estate markets that behave differently, overall the state is said to have a shortfall in housing that contributes to upward pressure on prices.

According to Broderick Perkins’ article in Realty Times, the California Association of Realtors reports that, “Each year ends in California with an approximate 50,000 shortfall in housing units, based on the number of new households (250,000) and the number of new housing units constructed (an estimated 200,000 this year).”

The bottom line seems to be that different places will have a different experience of real estate values during this purported boom/bust cycle.  As has been evident over time, the primary relevant factors that come into play are the housing demand/supply ratio and the economy of a specific market/locality. 

During this forthcoming period of expected average depreciation, there will be many areas that will actually do the opposite.  Where you are makes all the difference.


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